As you’re probably well aware, on July 13th Valve issued an announcement regarding CS:GO gambling sites. The announcement stated:
“Using the OpenID API and making the same web calls as Steam users to run a gambling business is not allowed by our API nor our user agreements. We are going to start sending notices to these sites requesting they cease operations through Steam, and further pursue the matter as necessary. Users should probably consider this information as they manage their in-game item inventory and trade activity.”
Following this announcement, many CS:GO players unloaded their item inventories onto OPSkins (which we would like to reiterate is NOT a gambling site, and is a marketplace where buyers and sellers connect to trade their items with each other). As we stated, since we aren’t a gambling site, we don’t know how this will affect us but we don’t believe that we will be asked by Valve to shut down, and are operating 100% normally. What followed was something akin to a stock market crash in our marketplace. Here’s some graphic proof showing the price changes in some of the most popular items sold on OPSkins:
If you remember from a previous post, the lines on this graph represent the six most sold CS:GO skins in our marketplace, with the AK-47 Redline (Field Tested) being the gun skin that moves the most amount of units overall. The lines clearly show a decline starting on July 13th with a drop on July 14th, followed by a climb and somewhat stabilization on July 15th and 16th. It doesn’t look too drastic at first sight but when you look at the variance in average price, you can clearly see the impact the announcement had:
- AK-47 Redline (Field Tested): 7.11% drop in the average price.
- AWP Worm God (Minimal Wear): 13.56% drop in the average price.
- Glock-18 Water Elemental (Field Tested): 10.53% drop in the average price.
- AWP Asiimov (Field Tested): 9.67% drop in the average price.
- AWP Worm God (Factory New): 8.00% drop in the average price.
- Glock-18 Water Elemental (Minimal Wear): 7.50% drop in the average price.
When added together, the average drop for these skin prices was 9.40% between July 13th and July 14th. To put it into context, remember the last time the Dow Jones (a U.S. stock market index) dropped that hard (7%), the world fell into an economic recession.
We can also look at the behavior of the case keys in our marketplace this past weekend since they are also a measurable representation of the skins economy:
Dramatic isn’t it?
First thing to note: The keys listed here are the highest selling volume keys in our marketplace. The price for all of them, except for the Chroma Case Key, seems to have stabilized between July 15th and July 16th, but at an average price lower than before July 13th. The variance in price for each one of the keys was more uniform than the variance in price for the gun skins (mostly because the keys are listed at a similar price and because traders used them to assess the price of a skin). Their variance from July 13th to July 14th was:
- Operation Breakout Case Key: 6.80% decline in average price.
- Operation Wildfire Case Key: 6.80% decline in average price.
- Revolver Case Key: 6.37% decline in average price.
- Shadow Case Key: 5.88% decline in average price.
- Chroma 2 Case Key: 5.37% decline in average price.
- Chroma 3 Case Key: 5.31% decline in average price.
- Chroma Case Key: 5.24% decline in average price.
- And the average was of 5.96% variance.
The sales during the next few weeks will be indicative of the state of the changes in the skins trading economy, and we’ll be reporting on it. As the largest online marketplace of it’s kind, OPSkins has worked tirelessly to create a safe trading platform for the community. As we stated in a previous post, we are here to facilitate the trade of CS:GO skins and to protect our customers from fraud. We appreciate the trust our community has placed in us and we will continue to evolve with the market changes to ensure your valuable item inventory and deposits can always be safely managed on OPSkins.